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That's my quant
2 articles tagged That's my quant.
2 Articles
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How SpaceX's Lockup Ladder Could Reshape the September 2026 Nasdaq-100 Rebalance
SpaceX is already in the Nasdaq-100. The September question is whether its expanding float raises its index share count — and whether that passive bid can absorb 1.55 billion newly sellable shares. Mid-case: roughly $4.9 billion of forced buying, against a supply pool where a 2% sell-through cancels it out.
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The Great SpaceX Unlock
SpaceX's IPO lockup is expiring, so we ran the event study: 16 recent IPO lockup expirations, raw and beta-hedged against SPY, split by pre-lockup momentum. Stocks that arrive at their unlock already falling tend to keep falling — and SPCX arrives down 22.1% over the prior 20 sessions. Every method we ran points to roughly -20% over the next 30 days.
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