That's my quant

The Great SpaceX Unlock

SpaceX's IPO lockup is expiring, so we ran the event study: 16 recent IPO lockup expirations, raw and beta-hedged against SPY, split by pre-lockup momentum. Stocks that arrive at their unlock already falling tend to keep falling — and SPCX arrives down 22.1% over the prior 20 sessions. Every method we ran points to roughly -20% over the next 30 days.